On paper, the plug-in hybrid is a smart solution, to avoid waking up the combustion engine, during short and urban journeys. PHEVs, as they are more generally called by brands, are a gradual transition towards 100% electric, at a time when lithium-ion batteries are not efficient enough to make long journeys in one go.
Unfortunately, in reality, the motorization at the crossroads of the automobile industry has rather been adopted to escape the ecological penalty, on models equipped with large cylinder capacity, and a morphology making them exceed two tons, like SUVs. Companies have been fond of them, to replace their fleet while taking advantage of the advantages not always deserved.
The standards for calculating CO2 emissions of PHEVs show all the hypocrisy behind the models. Their consumption is on average 3.5 times higher in reality compared to theory. If not more, because to limit consumption, we still have to play the game and recharge the battery, while using something other than motorways and expressways. Otherwise, these hybrids equipped with several dozen or even hundreds of kilos of batteries only operate using their combustion engine.
An ecological penalty for PHEVs (plug-in hybrids)
With the migration of aid from PHEVs to electrics, the plug-in hybrid industry has declined. Two years ago, its market share fell from 9.4% to 7.7%. Between 2024 and 2023, sales fell by 12%. In 2025, there is no longer any question of the end of subsidies, but rather of the arrival of a penalty, since the European Union is seeking to review the method for calculating PHEV emissions, and thus make them exceed the side of the cars concerned by the penalty.
Since January 1, 2025, we have effectively moved under the new Euro 6e-bis standard, which aims to make the approval tests more representative of the real use of vehicles, particularly for plug-in hybrids. The homologation tests are increasing from 800 km to 2,200 km in total, and the temperature spectrum is widened, now ranging from 0°C to 35°C in normal conditions, and up to 38°C in extreme conditions.
As a result, PHEV emissions could at least double, and for some of them, exceed the CO2 emissions ceilings, which means adding an ecological penalty. The models concerned are, for the moment, only those that will be released after January 1, 2025, but older models have only one year of reprieve, before their new models are affected.
The difficulty will only increase for manufacturers who would risk marketing plug-in hybrids, since in 2027, the standard will evolve again (Euro 6e-bis-FCM standard), with the implementation of tests over a distance of 4,260 km. At that time, assuming that the CO2 emissions limit ceiling is the expected one (118 g/km of CO2), then most of today's PHEVs will see their price impacted by an ecological penalty.
We can guess from here that manufacturers will seek to offer more PHEVs equipped with large batteries and smaller thermal engines, just as they will seek to limit the weight of cars, and therefore look elsewhere than at the SUV segment. Because in France, the restriction of emissions will be combined with that of mass: since January 1, with a reduction of 200 kg, rechargeable hybrids can also be subject to the 2025 weight penalty.
A horizon that is darkened by the CAFE regulation and the end of thermal
Beyond emissions and compliance with anti-pollution standards, manufacturers are also being tested by a new regulation, called CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy). This imposes new targets for average fuel consumption for their vehicle fleet, and therefore to achieve specific levels for all of their vehicles sold. Unsurprisingly, this will greatly impact manufacturers who do not only offer electric vehicles.
Tesla has also noticed this, with an increase in its sales in carbon credits, to groups such as Stellantis. Anyone who decided to free themselves from purchasing these carbon credits in 2021 must now look into it again, as will Toyota and Ford. Volkswagen, for its part, is reportedly using Chinese manufacturers, as is Renault with Geely. Very expensive contracts, but still more economical than the heavy fines that Europe is preparing. Volkswagen, for example, could face 1.5 billion euros in penalties in 2025 alone.
A situation that has prompted the European Commission to reflect, and show a little more flexibility, and "pragmatism", as its president, Ursula von der Leyen, mentioned. These fines would only have the effect of weakening the industry, at a time when Chinese competitors do not have all these barriers, apart from that of customs fees to export their electric models to Europe.
Ursula von der Leyen also recently launched a strategic dialogue on the future of the automotive industry and the "Green Deal" while the total end of thermal power in 2035 is giving rise to more and more protest among manufacturers. Among them, Mercedes, whose lobbyist Eckart von Klaeden believes that the future of the industry must be determined "by the market". To this end, he campaigned for the authorization after 2035 of "climate-friendly products", such as "plug-in hybrids and range extenders".
In parallel with PHEVs, the automotive industry is indeed talking more and more about range extenders. The concept, rather than using the thermal engine of a hybrid to power the wheels, the latter powers a generator, to recharge the battery of the electric motor. The principle was born from the observation that the electric autonomy of rechargeable hybrids easily exceeds 100 kilometers, and that thermal could become secondary, rather than the opposite.
Unfortunately, the technology has received more attention in China than in Europe, while manufacturers such as Xpeng, Nio or Zeekr and BYD have very quickly seized on it. From a range of 430 kilometers in the CLTC cycle, this would increase to 1430 kilometers, with a range extender, installed on its large G9 SUV and its P7 sedan, initially. The icing on the cake is that the thermal engine would only produce one decibel of operating noise, enough to guarantee one of the great pleasures of electric: its comfort of use.
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