Donald Trump unveiled this week a new wave of "reciprocal" customs duties targeting 60 countries, scheduled to take effect on April 9. In addition to a base tariff of 10% applicable from April 5, some countries will see their products subject to surcharges of up to 50%. The stated objective: to correct trade imbalances to the detriment of the United States. But the list of targeted countries has sparked... strong reactions, both from economists and chancelleries.
Uninhabited islands in Washington's sights
Among the destinations mentioned are territories as unlikely as Norfolk Island or certain areas of Antarctica, which, failing to export anything to the United States, are mainly home to... penguins. "There are no known exports from Norfolk Island to the United States," explains George Plant, administrator of the territory, questioned by The Guardian. “Nor are there any tariffs or non-tariff barriers in place.”
Many experts are concerned about the economic consequences of this measure, believing that it could generate a sharp increase in costs for American companies, with a direct impact on consumers. Economist James Surowiecki has criticized the calculation method, calling it "deceptive and absurd." According to him, the Trump administration simply divided the US trade deficit with each country by that country's exports to the US market, without taking into account services, which are a major contributor to the trade balance. Following the apparent misunderstanding of certain choices, a rumor quickly spread on social media: what if Trump's team had used artificial intelligence to determine its new prices? Several Internet users have shared screenshots of queries sent to ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok, all reproducing formulas similar to those used by the president.
Ironically, these same chatbots have also expressed reservations about the relevance of this approach. ChatGPT notes that the method "ignores the complex dynamics of international trade." Claude points out that "trade deficits do not necessarily reflect unfair practices" and that "tariffs can have counterproductive economic effects." Even Grok, the model developed by xAI (Elon Musk's company), speaks of a "brutal" tool, with often unpredictable consequences.
An investigation by The Verge went so far as to enter the White House's exact sentences into these AI systems. The result? The same simplified calculation formulas. From there to It's a small step to claim that Trump's team simply made a clumsy request to a chatbot to draw up its trade policy.
The fact remains that Donald Trump, whose popularity rating continues to erode, persists in presenting these tariffs as a popular and necessary measure. "That's what I promised, that's what I was elected to do," he declared. But for penguin exporters, the mystery remains.
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