Are we on the cusp of a major shift in the video game industry? And the end of a three-way battle? According to market research firm DFC Intelligence, the year 2025 is likely to shake up a lot of things, especially with the arrival of the Nintendo Switch2. Market research firm DFC Intelligence does not believe there will be room for three manufacturers in the future and that Nintendo’s next console will be a success alongside just one other console.
The end of the Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo trio?
Market research firm DFC Intelligence published its annual report this week market and its forecasts for video game console sales for the year 2025 and the years to come. In its report, DFC Intelligence is categorical: we will be entitled to a nice growth in revenues for the second half of the decade. However, the research firm also foresees a significant risk for one of the three established console manufacturers.
Indeed, still according to the study, the release of GTA 6 as well as the Nintendo Switch 2 should be a huge boost for the video game industry after a period of decline following the Covid 19 pandemic. DFC Intelligence is very optimistic since the firm estimates that in 2027, nearly one in two humans will play video games. That is more than 4 billion players on the planet (including mobile games of course).
For DFC Intelligence, Nintendo should be the big winner in the years to come, particularly thanks to its Switch 2 which, like the first version of the console, will allow you to play wherever you want thanks to the hybrid aspect. On the other hand, the future looks rather perilous for Sony or Microsoft. The firm believes that in the future, one of the two manufacturers risks collapsing, as was the case with SEGA and its Dreamcast in the early 2000s after the release of the PlayStation 2 and the arrival of the first Xbox.
In its report, the research firm states: "There is no room for more than two major consoles. Sony or Microsoft will have a hard time holding on to the distant third spot, and much will depend on whether either company can build momentum early on."
DFC Intelligence, however, clarifies that this forecast only concerns the next generation of consoles, not the current generation with the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S. Of course, for the research firm, launch date, price, and core features (such as the possibility of a hybrid console) will be key factors going forward: "A new Sony system (PS6) should have an advantage due to a loyal base and strong Sony IP. Microsoft failed with the Xbox Series X/S, but has made major acquisitions to become the world's largest software publisher. Microsoft has the opportunity to focus on software and distribution models rather than hardware."
Clearly, according to DFC Intelligence, everything seems to indicate that Microsoft would be in a worse position. But isn't that exactly Xbox's tactic in the future? For several months now, the Redmond firm has continued to highlight its subscription services with the various Xbox Game Pass packages. Today, the Game Pass allows some players to play more than 500 games directly without needing Xbox consoles. This is particularly the case with Samsung televisions that are natively compatible with the application, allowing you to connect an Xbox controller to play, without needing game consoles.
What if Microsoft's strategy was to end video game consoles after the Xbox Series X/S to leave the field open to Sony and Nintendo? While for their part, they focus on Cloud Gaming? For the moment, it is far too early to draw conclusions, but many decisions made by Microsoft in recent months could confirm this idea, in particular with the discontinuation of Xbox Game Studios games in physical form on Xbox, its desire to end exclusives and its project of designing a multiplatform user interface.
In any case, the future of video games looks bright and we hope that the industry will manage to recover. For two years, an unprecedented crisis has hit the video game industry with thousands of layoffs around the world. A shame for a sector that has exploded over the last three decades. Video games are the most profitable and flourishing industry in recent years with growth that has increased 20-fold since the end of the 1980s. After several difficult post-Covid years, we hope that 2025 will be the new starting point for better days.
David Cole, Founder and CEO of DFC Intelligence
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