As we approach the May 1st 2025 bank holiday, the weather is expected to be very mild, with temperatures that could be reminiscent of summer. "We are heading towards what is called an omega blockage, named after the Greek letter in the shape of an iron at horse», explains meteorologist Yann Amice on actu.fr. This atmospheric phenomenon should bring about stable and stationary weather from this Sunday, April 27, with an anticyclone that will force the surrounding depressions to bypass it.
This configuration will favor the rise of very hot air coming from North Africa and which will raise temperatures, especially in the southwest where The 30°C mark could be crossed as early as Tuesday, April 29.
This anticyclonic block has extended from the Azores to the British Isles since April 24 and is creating an axis of high pressure dominating France. While a weak disturbance is expected to cross the western half of the country this Saturday, April 26 (with a little rain and a few thunderstorms), it should quickly clear to make way for generous sunshine and a rise in temperatures for several days, before a possible return of thunderstorms.
May and June will be stormy
However, as specifies La Chaine Meteo, dry conditions should not be expected throughout the month of May. While a glimpse of summer is expected next week, wet and unstable conditions are expected to prevail by the end of May. The week of April 28 to May 4 is expected to be very pleasant and spring-like, but the following week (May 5 to 11) will be more unstable and stormy.
Scenarios predict the presence of cold drops that could cause thunderstorms, although no worsening scenarios are currently expected, experts explain. Northern France is expected to enjoy more pleasant weather but with cooler temperatures than the previous week. The Ice Saints period (May 11-13) should not see any frost, which is good news for gardeners.
The warmest springs
These developments are part of a broader trend observed for several years: Météo France points out that the four warmest springs since 1900 all took place in the 21st century with heat waves occurring earlier and earlier in the year while periods of frost are becoming rarer.
According to seasonal forecasts, temperatures for the months of May, June and July 2025 are expected to remain above seasonal norms, with an average difference of +1 to +2°C. Precipitation will also be unevenly distributed, with more rain in the southern part, which is a sign of a strong summer storm trend that could limit the risk of drought.
La Chaîne Météo also points out that May is expected to be "unstable in the south, with temperatures that are not excessive," while June is expected to be hotter and stormier, particularly in the southwestern part of France.
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