The potential near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has seen its probability of hitting Earth change after new calculations. We explain whether or not it poses a danger based on the latest available data.
This is the end of the suspense for the asteroid 2024 YR4: the danger posed by this potentially geo-crossing object had led it to be categorized at level 3 on the Turin scale. A ranking obtained after data made it possible to calculate a probability of impact of around 1 chance in 32.
New data obtained on Sunday, February 23, however, now lowers the probability of impact to less than 1 chance in 1,000. In other words, the threshold required to consider that a star really represents a danger. As a result, there is no longer any real reason to worry: 2024 YR4 does not actually pose not a serious threat to the planet or your city.
Potentially dangerous objects under surveillance
Since 1999, the Torino scale has been used to classify celestial objects that could represent a danger. A necessity, while the chances of an impact with planetary consequences remain non-zero. And it is becoming possible to observe the precise trajectory of more stars, and with much greater advance.
The NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) now indicates that the probability impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 is 0.00005 (0.005%) or a 1 in 20,000 chance of it passing close to Earth in 2032
The most worrying risk level for us was that it would impact after 2030. Even then, the real chance of impact remained around 1%, which is a very low risk overall.
Beyond detection, there is also progress being made in to develop methods to effectively deflect the trajectory of objects that are proven to be dangerous. Knowing that the final scenario should ideally not resemble the script of Armageddon (1998).
Blowing up a dangerous asteroid potentially risks worsening its effects on the planet. Instead, agencies like NASA are exploring the approach of impactors. As with the DART mission. On September 26, 2022, the DART probe achieved the impact planned by the mission teams.
Impact that succeeded in alter the speed of the asteroid, proving that the method could be used in the future to deflect objects threatening Earth.
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