“I googled it.” Widely used in everyday language, this phrase could reflect an old-fashioned habit. Today's students are now more accustomed to “chatgpter” than to “googling” to prepare for their next presentation. A worrying observation for Google, which has not succeeded in popularizing “geminier”.
Melius Research, a company consulting and investment firm, thus hypothesizes that Google will become the future "Kodak". The search engine emblematic of the democratization of the internet would thus be on the verge of becoming a relic of the past.
"Since our launch in mid-2023, we have focused on the essentials regarding Google. Our position is based on the idea that Google is losing the next generation of "searchers" to ChatGPT", wrote in a note addressed to Ben Reitzes, director of digital research at Melius Research, tells his clients.
In his eyes, "OpenAI's homepage could appear as this generation of 'digital cameras'." Ben Reitzes points out that while Kodak had bet on the fact that digital photography would coexist with printed photos, even believing that consumers would be likely to print more of them, the company ultimately ended up in oblivion.
" Google Ad customers could be the ones to take the photo finish.
The latest results from Alphabet, Google's parent company, have only reinforced this view within Melius Research. When it announced its fourth-quarter results last February, it surprised investors with revenue of $96.5 billion (around €89 billion). Despite annual growth of 12%, the firm failed to meet its targets. Its stock fell 6% following this announcement.
While OpenAI could see revenue from subscriptions reach 12 billion dollars (some 11 billion euros) this year, Ben Reitzes casts doubt on Google's ability to generate such amounts with Gemini subscriptions.
Especially since OpenAI's profits could still be fueled by adding advertising to ChatGPT. For the director of Melius Research, if this happened, at least 20% of the global advertising budget, which amounts to nearly 40 billion dollars (equivalent to 36.9 billion euros), would be captured. "Google Ad customers could be the ones who take the photo finish, becoming more demanding if they see the profitability of their ads decrease," he estimates.
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