For the first time, a full-scale exercise tested our ability to react in the event of a massive solar flare. The results aren't exactly encouraging, and we'll have to correct the situation.
To best prepare for a potential natural disaster, there's nothing like an exercise in real conditions. Earthquake, tsunami... By rehearsing the actions and procedures to follow if this were to happen, we try to avoid as much damage as possible on D-Day.
On a smaller scale, almost all office workers have already done at least one fire evacuation simulation. But on the scale of space, how does it work?
This is the question several American agencies asked themselves in 2024. That year, we faced two massive solar flares, including the most powerful recorded since 2017. It occurred just a few months after the May solar storm, which was already breaking all records.
In both cases, the consequences were very direct, with radio outages, loss of GPS signal, power outages, and intense radiation harmful to satellites and astronauts on missions. It was therefore necessary to anticipate the phenomenon.
If a massive solar flare occurred, we would not be able to react in time according to this report
On May 8 and 9, 2024, a coalition of American agencies called SWORM (Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation) is organizing an exercise. The goal: to measure the government's degree of preparedness in the event of a dangerous solar flare. The scenario envisaged is based around four fictitious modules. Let's take the example of the one taking place over eight days between January and February 2028.
Let's imagine that we spot an active region of the Sun positioning itself opposite Earth. At the same time, two astronauts are orbiting the Moon aboard the Orion spacecraft. They are to join two other people already on the moon. The monitored solar region then erupts, reaching level X, the highest on the scale.
The results are clear: scientists can predict the effects of a solar storm on Earth only 30 minutes before the radiation hits. With such a short lead time, it is impossible to take effective measures.
The report concludes that more effective forecasting tools are needed. “Just as we prepare for earthquakes, hurricanes, and cyberattacks, [the United States must] act before a major space weather event occurs.”
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