Avengers 5 won't be ready on time... neither will its sequel. Nearly a year after their official release, the two Russo brothers' films have had their release dates pushed back seven months. Avengers: Doomsday will ultimately not arrive before December 18, 2026, while Secret Wars is now promised for December 17, 2027. In both cases, geek culture fans will be faced with a difficult choice.
Indeed, the postponement of the two films puts the Marvel franchise in direct competition with the universe of Dune in December 2026 and that of The Lord of the Rings in 2027. The release dates chosen by the House of Ideas are already those used by Messiah and The Hunt for Gollum. A sign of Feige's confidence in his superhero reunion, but also a strategy that raises questions, given that the end of the year is traditionally not the most favorable for MCU productions. Sabotage or suicide mission? Disney is trying to replicate the cinematic event of summer 2023. Except that not all the conditions are right...
The Ultimate Battle
Is Disney trying to replay the Barbie / Oppenheimer clash, which was rather successful for both feature films? Indeed, the first film managed to make a name for itself with over a billion dollars in revenue, while the second came dangerously close. The idea of reproducing this clash at the top is rather interesting, even if it seems like a dangerous game for the industry.
Last November, in the United States, Paramount and Universal tried the experiment again by pitting Wicked against Gladiator II. While the adaptation of the musical had no trouble finding its audience, Ridley Scott's epic failed to exceed the company's projections and ended its run below the break-even point.
The upcoming clashes between Dune: Messiah, The Hunt for Gollum and the two Avengers films promise to be even more complicated. Because Disney doesn't seem to have taken into account the fact that its target audience is essentially the same as that of its two rivals, whereas Barbie and Oppenheimer had the ambition to attract different viewers.
In 2019, Kantar Media took a closer look at Marvel fans. According to the polling institute, 59% of the team's fans are men, with an average age of 38. If we count comic book readers as well as viewers, it's clear that this is an audience that is very similar to that of the Lord of the Rings universe. Moreover, by their own admission, Marvel fans are as interested in science fiction as they are in fantasy or fantastical. They are therefore likely to be interested in all three universes.
Change of plans for Warner Bros?
The postponement of the next two Avengers will have an impact on Marvel and Disney's main rival. Indeed, coincidence or not, the next Dune and The Lord of the Rings films are distributed and produced in collaboration with Warner Bros. While the status of the two productions is still mysterious, and filming has not yet begun for either of them, it is quite possible that the company is changing its approach to avoid too much competition. After all, the latest Avengers film currently sits as the second-highest grossing film at the global box office (without taking inflation into account). For its part, Tolkien's fantasy is only in 32nd place (with The Return of the King) while Frank Herbert's has not exceeded a million dollars.
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