Researchers want to put an end to vague hypotheses about extraterrestrial life. Thanks to a unique scientific tool, they can now assess whether a planet can truly support life. This change in method could transform the search for habitable worlds.
Exploring the universe in search of a trace of life has become a priority in modern astronomy. This quest mobilizes enormous resources, with new-generation space telescopes and increasingly ambitious planetary missions. A 2024 study already revealed that water could be trapped in large quantities in the depths of exoplanets, while a few weeks ago, a second demonstrated that potentially habitable super-Earths are much more numerous and farther from their star than expected. Faced with the immensity of the cosmos, we still need to know where to look. Researchers at the University of Arizona, supported by NASA, have just created a novel model to guide this research. It is a calculation framework that makes it possible to estimate the compatibility between a living organism and an extraterrestrial environment. The system uses two datasets: an "organism model," based on the vital needs of a real or theoretical species, and a "habitat model," which compiles available data on a planet or moon. The result is a survival probability, even in the case of partial or uncertain data.
This model calculates whether an organism can survive in an extraterrestrial environment
Unlike conventional approaches based solely on the presence of water, this model adopts a probabilistic method. It can, for example, show that an extreme terrestrial organism living in hydrothermal vents could theoretically survive in the subsurface ocean of Europa, a moon of Jupiter. It also takes into account measurement uncertainty, such as an atmosphere detected with only 88% certainty. This flexibility helps avoid hasty conclusions and better target future observations. The quantitative framework is already available as open source and is being used in the NASA-funded Alien Earths project. It will soon be expanded with a database of terrestrial organisms living in extreme conditions, as well as hypothetical life forms. This model could thus direct telescopes such as the Habitable Worlds Observatory or the Nautilus constellation towards the most promising planets. The work was detailed in an article published by The Conversation, by Daniel Apai, a professor at the University of Arizona.
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