SpaceX's current difficulties don't seem to have dampened Elon Musk's enthusiasm. Despite two consecutive failures during the latest Starship test flights, the tycoon has reaffirmed that his immense Starship will indeed head to Mars as early as next year. A goal that seems extremely ambitious in the current context.
As a reminder, the super-heavy launcher's latest flights haven't been particularly encouraging. While the company was on a roll, with several generally successful flights, the momentum reversed with the arrival of Starship Block 2. This new version of the upper stage, introduced during the seventh test flight, was supposed to mark a turning point in the company's roadmap. But the least we can say is that the results have yet to materialize. The vehicle exploded in mid-flight during the seventh and eighth launches, on February 24 and March 7, 2025.
SpaceX: Why did the Starship explode (again)?
But it takes more than that to discourage Elon Musk, for whom these spectacular failures are an integral part of the development process. In a post on Twitter/X, he recently stated that the Starship would set off for the Red Planet "at the end of next year," which probably refers to the winter of 2026.
Realistic goal or another exaggeration?
On paper, this is not a completely unattainable goal. But to hope to achieve it, the company will first have to succeed in putting its famous Starship Block 2 on the right track. And that is still far from being the case. Avoiding any accidents during the ninth test flight would be a good start. But even if SpaceX engineers achieve this goal, having a mature vehicle before the end of next year will be no easy feat.
At this point, it's difficult to assess whether the billionaire's statement is truly realistic. Is this a way to put pressure on his employees? Or a way to reassure his public, given that Musk has been regularly heckled since taking office in Donald Trump's administration—with a fairly catastrophic impact on Tesla's valuation? Perhaps—but the most reasonable explanation is probably over-optimism.
This isn't the first time Musk has put forward a particularly ambitious timeline like this. And so far, these deadlines have often arrived significantly later than expected. As a reminder, he already stated in 2016 that humans would set foot on Mars for the first time... as early as 2025. This new prediction should therefore be taken with a grain of salt.
An unexpected passenger
Elon Musk's message, however, includes another interesting piece of information: when the time for the big departure finally arrives, the vehicle will take off with a passenger.
It will obviously not be a flesh-and-blood human. Since Starship is not yet capable of conducting a series of test flights without an accident, it is naturally far from being qualified for manned flights at the moment. Instead, it will carry an Optimus, the humanoid robot developed by Tesla.
Should this be seen as a sort of advertising campaign for Musk's industrial empire, a bit like the Falcon Heavy test flight that deployed a Tesla Roadster into orbit in 2018? Maybe... but not only that.
Initially, this approach will allow SpaceX to begin the qualification process for future manned flights. A very important point for the company's roadmap. As a reminder, SpaceX was commissioned by NASA to build the HLS (Human Landing System), the device that will allow American astronauts to set foot on the Moon as part of the Artemis program. Before getting there, it will obviously be necessary to ensure that the Starship, which will serve as the basis for the HLS, is capable of transporting passengers safely.
It will be interesting to see what SpaceX plans to do with this robot during this mission. Will it simply serve as a crash test dummy? Will it be deployed to the Red Planet? Will it be equipped with scientific instruments? At this time, these questions remain unanswered. But let's not put the cart before the horse; before considering the role of this robotic emissary, it will be worth following the ninth test flight of Starship, the date of which has not yet been announced at the time of writing.
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