A spacecraft launched in 1972 by the USSR will finally re-enter Earth's atmosphere. It was supposed to reach Venus, but never left Earth's orbit. Its fall could occur at any time on May 10.
Objects from the early days of space exploration still orbit above our heads. Some are harmless and disintegrate naturally over time. Others, more robust, regularly cause concerns. These uncontrolled returns to Earth remain rare, but not exceptional. When they involve historic vehicles, the attention is even greater. This is the case today, with a relic from the Soviet era.
According to ESA, the spacecraft in question is called Kosmos 482, a Soviet probe launched in 1972 to reach the planet Venus. It was part of the Venera program, which initiated numerous missions to our neighbor. A failure during launch prevented it from leaving Earth's orbit. For more than 50 years, it has been orbiting the planet at a low altitude. According to calculations by the Aerospace Corporation's CORDS center, the probe should re-enter the atmosphere on May 10 at around 7:54 a.m. (French time), with a margin of error of plus or minus nine hours.
Kosmos 482 could fall anywhere on Earth, but the risk remains extremely low
The module is designed to withstand extreme conditions. It is one meter wide, protected by a titanium shell, and weighs approximately 495 kg. It was originally planned to land on Venus, which explains its unusual strength. Unlike many modern debris items that explode into pieces, Kosmos 482 should remain largely intact. This reduces the scattering of fragments, but complicates the prediction of the landing point. Its orbit passes over most continents, between latitudes 52° north and south.
Despite this uncertainty, the probabilities of danger are low. 71% of the Earth's surface is covered by water, and large areas of land are uninhabitable or sparsely populated. This is not an isolated case: in March 2024, a piece of the ISS crashed into a house in Florida, severely damaging the structure. In this case, the risk to a person is estimated at 0.004%, well below the alert thresholds. Astronomers and enthusiasts have been following the descent of Kosmos 482 for years. But only the final moment will determine whether this vestige of the Cold War will quietly fall... or make history a second time.
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